Doc's 2005 WAC Preview -- Conference Will Get National Attention In 2005 With Two Strong Programs

Be prepared to hear quite a bit about the Westerndrubbing UAB 59-40 for their third bowl win in the
Athletic Conference this year. Just as Utah made alast six years. Chang left college as the NCAA's
commanding run into the BCS Top Five last seasonall-time leading passer, topping Ty Detmer's mark by
out of the lowly Mountain West, the WAC featuresover 2,000 yards. Also gone is WR Chad Owens,
a pair of clubs that could do some serious damage towho tallied 22 touchdowns in '04.Strengths: Coach
the bowl hopes of schools in the majorJune Jones insists that all five of his offensive
conferences.According to the USA Today preseasonstarters this year along the offensive line will be in
poll, the WAC is home to two of the top 26 teamsthe NFL at some point. Yeah, he's probably blowing
in the country. Boise State is currently ranked No. 19smoke, but there is some talent there. The best of
in the nation, and Fresno State is No. 26. Fresnothe lot is 6-foot-2 guard Samson Satele. Also, after
State is a mere four points out of the Top 25 (188hiring run-and-shoot godfather Mouse Davis to coach
pts. to Pittsburgh's 192 pts.). Not too shabby.Boisespecial teams in '04, Jones brought in Jerry Glanville
State has a chance to make its presence felt on theto coach up the defense.Weakness: Even Jones
national scene early on this fall. The Broncos travel toadmits that this is a rebuilding year. Besides their
face SEC powerhouse Georgia in Athens on Sept. 3.quarterback, Hawaii waved goodbye to its four
If they manage to win that game, they should beleading receivers. Glanville will be good for some
undefeated by the time the square off against theridiculous quotes, but can he improve the
Bulldogs in early November.As for the rest of the112th-ranked defense? They gave up an absurd 252
conference, three Sun Belt refugees have made theiryards per game on the ground last year. Also, their
way into the mix - New Mexico State, Idaho andschedule is brutal with USC, Michigan State and
Utah State. None of those teams figure to factorWisconsin on the on-conference slate.Best Bet: Nov.
much in the mix, but each are trying to establish a25, 2005 vs. Wisconsin. The Warriors are 13-6 ATS
base for programs that aspire to reach the level ofunder Jones, and should be dogs in this
national respect that it looks like Boise and Fresnopost-Thanksgiving game. I think the timing, along with
have achieved.The following is Doc's detailed analysisWisconsin's unfamiliarity with Hawaii's style, will lead to
of each Western Athletic Conference teama cover.Be Wary Of: Sept. 10, 2005 at Michigan State.
highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and strengthThe Spartans came to Hawaii last year and got
of schedule.Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1, 8-0)Fresnomolested by the officials. It's not going to be pretty
State closed out 2004 with a flourish. They endedhow they exact revenge in East Lansing.Idaho
took out their wrath after a loss to Boise State byVandals (3-8, 3-5)This isn't going to be pretty. Idaho
blasting their last five conference foes by an averagewas 3-9 last season while playing in the Sun Belt, and
of 40 points (all big time covers). They then claimednow their moving up in class to the WAC. First-year
an upset win (outright) in a bowl game for the thirdcoach Nick Holt did an admirable job coaxing what he
year in a row, coming from behind to top Virginiacould out of an undermanned squad that only played
37-34 in overtime in the MPC Computers Bowl. Withtwo true home games. This year, he returns just 13
increased national recognition for theirstarters and will be hard-pressed to contend with the
accomplishments, the goal for the Bulldogs now is tolikes of Boise State and Fresno State.Strengths: Two
end Boise State's reign in the WAC. Fresno has lostfreshman running backs, Jayson Bird and Rolly
four straight meetings.Strengths: 17 starters includeLumbala, combined for 1,433 yards. Bird averaged 5.9
linebacker Dwayne Andrews and quarterback Paulyards per carry. Michael Harrington completed 66
Pinegar. Pinegar completed 60 percent of his passespercent of his passes (up from 46 percent in '03) and
last fall and 11 different receivers had more than fivefound wideout Bobby Bernal-Wood 96 times. Those
catchers. Wendell Mathis (995) was five yards away96 grabs were fourth in the country. Also, all-Sun Belt
from giving the Bulldogs two 1,000-yard rushersperformer Cole Snyder joins Mike Anderson to lead
(Bryson Sumlin had 1,104). The defense brings backthe linebacking corps.Weakness: Harrington didn't
eight starters on a crew that finished 13th nationallyexactly get a ringing endorsement from Holt in spring
in both passing yards allowed and third downpractice after the coach refused to name him the
efficiency.Weakness: Team MVP Logan Mankins isstarter over juco transfer Steve Wichman. A QB
now starting for the New England Patriots, andcontroversy is not something that a program that will
though four starters return they are still pretty greenstruggle not to drown in its new league needs. Also,
up front (two sophomores and a freshman). Garrettthe secondary was terrible last season (gave up 200
McIntyre is the only returning defensive lineman foryards rushing and 230 in the air) and hasn't shown
the league's top defense in '04.Best Bet: Sept. 17,signs of improvement.Best Bet: Oct. 1, 2005 at UNLV.
2005 at Oregon. Statement game. Big time. FresnoThe Vandals are above water ATS as road dogs
State is 13-2 versus teams from the BCS leagues,(17-14 the last seven years) and are a respectable
and has eight outright wins in those contests. Also,12-8 on grass. I don't know if they're good enough to
they're recently 8-1 vs. the Pac 10. Be careful though,steal a road win against the Rebels, but they should
the Bulldogs have gone only 12-12 on artificial turf thecover against a team of comparable skill.Be Wary Of:
last seven years.Be Wary Of: Nov. 12, 2005 vs. BoiseNov. 19, 2005 at Boise State. Four of Idaho's nine
State. This is it. This game will be for the conferencelosses in 2004 came by more than 30 points. One of
championship, and the Bulldogs get to play it at home.those was a 65-7 debacle versus their in state
I do think this is the year they get over the hump,"rival".Louisiana Tech Bulldogs(3-8, 2-6)Ryan Moats,
but the number on this game could be deceiving. Ifthe 5-foot-8 dynamo that electrified the crowds of
they're getting points, it's a trap bet. If they're givingJoe Aillet Stadium has taken his road show to the
points, just make sure it's less than six.Boise StateNFL, leaving a gaping hole in the Bulldogs offense.
Broncos (10-2, 7-1)Don't let the gimmicky offenseThough he started only 22 games, last year's WAC
and blue field fool you - Boise State is one of the topOffensive Player of the Year finished his brief career
programs in all of college football. The Broncos werewith almost 3,200 yards. And those numbers didn't
one quarter away from an undefeated season lastcome against cupcakes. The Bulldogs had one of the
year, suffering its first loss at the hands of Louisvilletoughest schedules in the nation in '04, squaring off
44-40 in the Liberty Bowl. Amazingly, that loss makesagainst six nationally ranked teams. They shouldn't
Boise State 37-3 over its last 40 games. The otherface more than half of that number this fall.Strengths:
defeat was a two-pointer to Oregon State in '03.Freshman Patrick Jackson could end up filling the void
The Broncos have won 26 consecutive conferenceleft by Moats. Jackson ran for more than 3,000 yards
games and three straight WAC titles. Also, they'veand 58 touchdowns as a senior in high school in '04. If
been to five bowl games in the last six years, goinghe follows behind all-WAC guard Aaron Lips he could
4-1 (overall and against the spread) in thathave a breakout year. The defense is spotty, but
period.Strengths: Eight starters on both sides of thethey do return three senior linebackers, led by
ball will make their way back to Bronco Stadium thisLadarius Love.Weakness: La. Tech is on its fifth
fall. Quarterback Jared Zabransky, who passed for 16defensive coordinator in the last five years. They
touchdowns and rushed for 13 more in 2004, andwere college football's worst D in 2003. Giving up 32
linebacker Korey Hall, the top returning tackler arepoints a game last year was an improvement, but
both back in blue. All four of the Broncos top rushersonly four starters are back from that suffocating
(including Jon Helmandollar, who had 14 touchdowns inunit. The Bulldogs also don't have a quarterback, with
46 carries) return, as do four stellar offensivethree signal-callers still lost in the indomitable shadow
linemen. The defense is stout in the middle, andleft by 2003 grad Luke McCown.Best Bet: Nov. 12,
safety Cam Hall and cornerback Gerald Alexander (52005 at Idaho. Having to close the season against
INT's) bring some experience to theFresno and Boise, this will probably mark the Bulldogs'
secondary.Weakness: Leading receiver T.J. Acreelast shot at a win in '04. Also, they've won at least
graduated, and Boise will be relying on juco transferone game on turf every season since 2001.Be Wary
Cole Clasen to pick up the slack. Defensively,Of: Sept. 10, 2005 at Florida. Cover your eyes and
two-way player Quinton Jones will be expected tohide the women and children. La. Tech is 0-6 the last
make the change from RB/WR to startingfew years ATS as dogs of more than 21 points. The
cornerback. The nation's leading scorer in '04, kickerUrban Meyer Era should begin pretty swimmingly in
Tyler Jones, has moved on and punter Kyle Stringerthe swamp against the Bulldogs.San Jose State
will likely take on double-duty. Also, the schedule is aSpartans (3-8, 2-6)The good news for the Spartans
bit tougher with trips to Georgia, Oregon State,is that 67-year-old Dick Tomey is rip roarin' and ready
Fresno State and Hawaii looming.Best Bet: Sept. 10,to go. Tomey is currently eighth on the active list of
2005 at Oregon State. If Boise State loses towinningest coaches at the Division I-A level, with a
Georgia in its season opener, it will drop the line on158-110-7 career record. The bad news is that this is
this game. Don't be fooled - the Broncos are the farbarely a Div. I-A roster, and the average attendance
superior team. BSU is 2-0 as road dogs the last twoof SJSU home games last season was about 6,500.
years.Be Wary Of: Oct. 22, 2005 at Utah State. IOh yeah, and they are the second worst program at
know this sounds crazy, and I don't think there's agraduating players "in a timely manner," as noted by
chance in hell that the Aggies pull the upset, butthe NCAA. Tomey, you sure you don't want to
Boise State is only 14-11 the last two years ATS, andretire?Strengths: Seven starters return from last
is 0-3 as favorites of more than four touchdowns. Ityear's defense. New offensive coordinator Ken
takes a certain type of animal to beat a team by 40.Margerum thinks this receiving core is better than the
The Broncos might not be it.New Mexico Stateone he left at Stanford. Lamar Ferguson, this year's
Aggies (7-5, 5-3)Hal Mumme is bringing his travelingstarter at running back is only 5-feet, 5-inches. I'm
sideshow to Aggie Memorial Stadium. Mumme made asure the novelty on that will wear off quick, but at
national name for himself by actually turning Kentuckyleast it's something. How about this: over its last 16
into a relatively competitive football program in thegames, the Spartans are 9-7 against the
SEC. After four years at the school, Mumme was runspread.Weakness: Everything else. Quarterback Adam
out amidst rumors of impropriety. He resurfaced atTafralis is an accomplished discus thrower, but not
Southeast Louisiana, where he had anothermuch of a passer. Tafralis completed just 44 percent
successful two-year run. Now it's on to New Mexico,of this throws last season in limited action. He's
where he could put the Aggies in the position ofexcited about the new offense though, and has been
spoiler for Boise or Fresno, and should at least find hisquoted as saying, "There's a lot more of a plan,
way to the school's first ever bowl game.Strengths:instead of just flipping a coin."Best Bet: Oct. 22, 2005
The Aggies' offense has a real nice core for Mummevs. Hawaii. Tomey will have his charges fired up in this
to work his magic with. He has the team's fivematchup against one of his old teams. Also, the
leading receivers back, three offensive linemen, andSpartans have covered the spread against the
the top three rushers. The most intriguing prospect isWarriors in each of the past two seasons.Be Wary
converted quarterback Paul Dombroski, who is now aOf: Oct. 8, 2005 at Utah State. This clash of WAC
full time slot receiver. Linebacker Jimmy Cottrell hascellar dwellers should be riveting. Amazingly enough,
led the team in tackles for three straight seasons,San Jose State is 8-1 ATS over the last seven years
and is back to anchor the defense.Weakness: Likeas a road favorite. If they're giving points here, take
several other teams in this division, they don't have athe Spartans all the way to the bank!Utah State
quarterback. Junior Joey Vincent and juco transferAggies (3-9, 2-6)The highlight of the Aggies' season in
Royal Gill with fight for reps this fall. Also, while they2004 was their 34-point second half for a comeback
may be the most well equipped team to make thewin over New Mexico State in the final game of the
jump from the Sun Belt to the WAC, they're stillyear. The win was a fond farewell for coach Mick
tossing themselves into a conference with preexistingDennehy, who had been fired 12 days earlier. Utah
hierarchy and will be facing teams with a greater skillState is welcoming new coach Brent Guy, a former
level than they're used to.Best Bet: Sept. 17, 2005 atAggies assistant under Charlie Weatherbie and has
New Mexico. The Lobos whooped up on the Aggiesbeen at Arizona State for the past four years. To
38-3 last year, and will be playing at home. Thissay that the Aggies will have a tough adjustment
should lead to a double-digit spread with the Aggiesmoving to the WAC would be an understatement,
getting points. The teams are pretty even ingiven that they tied for last in the Sun Belt last
strength, and have the whole in-state rivalry thingfall.Strengths: For the second straight year, the
going on. I think NMSU could win outright, but I'llstrength of the team should be the secondary. The
settle for a cover.Be Wary Of: Sept. 24, 2005 vs.defensive line also has some talent, but needs to
California. Yes, they'll be all amped up for this one, butimprove against the run (90th nationally in 2004).
the Aggies are 0-4 after playing New Mexico,Wide receiver Kevin Robinson led the squad with 602
including a terrible home loss to Idaho in 2003 and ayards and managed 22.5 yards per punt return,
45-0 drubbing at the hands of UTEP in 2004.Nevadasecond in the nation to Ohio State's Ted Ginn
Wolfpack (5-6, 4-4)Through three separate toursJr.Weakness: If Utah State is to match last year's win
with the Wolfpack, coach Chris Ault has had onlytotal (3), they need to improve their run defense.
two losing seasons in 20 years. One of them wasThey were 115th in the country last season against
last year's 5-7 disappointment. This season Nevada isthe run, yielding 192 yards a game. It could be tough
sort of a dark horse team in the WAC. Now,to shore up that area on defense given that the
obviously they aren't going to overthrow Boise orAggies lost their top four linebackers from last
Fresno, but with a soft non-conference scheduleseason.Best Bet: Nov. 5, 2005 vs. Louisiana Tech. Utah
they could pull out 7 wins and make their first bowlState is forced to play Fresno State, Boise State and
appearance since 1996.Strengths: Quarterback Jeffat Alabama in consecutive weeks. The Bulldogs will be
Rowe and Nichiren Flowers hooked up 91 times lasta welcome sight for the Aggies.Be Wary Of: Oct. 1,
fall, the fifth-highest total in the country. Both are2005 at Idaho. Utah State has split against the
back, along with Caleb Spencer (67 catches for 761Vandals the past two years, but hasn't covered
yards), to provide the offensive punch for Nevada.against Idaho the last four years. The two are
The defense returns eight starters (though theyfamiliar foes from the Sun Belt, so a close game
were terrible as a group last year). Jeremy Engstromshould ensue.Overall Expectations:Top-heavy is the
had a solid freshmen year, and will team up with abest way to describe he WAC this season. I think
juco transfer and another true freshmen to lead thethat Boise State has a more difficult schedule than
linebackers.Weakness: The defense has yielded lessFresno State, and that will give the Bulldogs a slight
than 31 points per game only once in the last sixedge. I think the two clubs are very close in talent,
years. They do return the eight starters, but they letand while Boise State may be better, I have a feeling
up 210 rushing yards per game last season and 14that Fresno's home-field advantage will win out when
yards per pass. Leading rusher Chance Kretschmerthe two meet in what should be their only
has also moved on after three solid years, leaving acompetitive conference game.The teams that joined
void in the Nevada running game.Best Bet: Oct. 1,the conference this season have certainly
2005 vs. San Jose State. Nevada has cleaned Sanwatered-down the league. I'm not sure where this
Jose State's clock the last two years, winning byleague is headed in the long term, but I know that
double figures each time and leading to two covers.this should be a season of unprecedented coverage
With a little momentum after their pre-conferencefor the WAC. Watch out for New Mexico State this
schedule, another double-digit win should be in theseason. Finally, I think that this league is nothing more
cards.Be Wary Of: Nov. 12, at New Mexico State.than two powerhouses that will get to look a little
This should be a hotly contested game against thebetter than they really are by demolishing the WAC
third and fourth best teams in the conference. Thebottom-feeders.Doc's Sports Recent Articles:2005 Big
fact that Nevada is going to be a road dog (0-5 ATSTen PreviewUS Open OddsNFL HoldoutsDoc's Sports
in 2004) doesn't bode well for them.Hawaii WarriorsHandicapping Service
(4-7, 3-5)Last year the Timmy Chang Era ended in1-866-238-6696Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been
the Aloha State with a flourish. The Warriors wonrecognized as one of the leaders and most trusted
their final three regular season games to barelynames in sports handicapping information.
secure a bowl berth. They made the most of it by