| Be prepared to hear quite a bit about the Western | | | | drubbing UAB 59-40 for their third bowl win in the |
| Athletic Conference this year. Just as Utah made a | | | | last six years. Chang left college as the NCAA's |
| commanding run into the BCS Top Five last season | | | | all-time leading passer, topping Ty Detmer's mark by |
| out of the lowly Mountain West, the WAC features | | | | over 2,000 yards. Also gone is WR Chad Owens, |
| a pair of clubs that could do some serious damage to | | | | who tallied 22 touchdowns in '04.Strengths: Coach |
| the bowl hopes of schools in the major | | | | June Jones insists that all five of his offensive |
| conferences.According to the USA Today preseason | | | | starters this year along the offensive line will be in |
| poll, the WAC is home to two of the top 26 teams | | | | the NFL at some point. Yeah, he's probably blowing |
| in the country. Boise State is currently ranked No. 19 | | | | smoke, but there is some talent there. The best of |
| in the nation, and Fresno State is No. 26. Fresno | | | | the lot is 6-foot-2 guard Samson Satele. Also, after |
| State is a mere four points out of the Top 25 (188 | | | | hiring run-and-shoot godfather Mouse Davis to coach |
| pts. to Pittsburgh's 192 pts.). Not too shabby.Boise | | | | special teams in '04, Jones brought in Jerry Glanville |
| State has a chance to make its presence felt on the | | | | to coach up the defense.Weakness: Even Jones |
| national scene early on this fall. The Broncos travel to | | | | admits that this is a rebuilding year. Besides their |
| face SEC powerhouse Georgia in Athens on Sept. 3. | | | | quarterback, Hawaii waved goodbye to its four |
| If they manage to win that game, they should be | | | | leading receivers. Glanville will be good for some |
| undefeated by the time the square off against the | | | | ridiculous quotes, but can he improve the |
| Bulldogs in early November.As for the rest of the | | | | 112th-ranked defense? They gave up an absurd 252 |
| conference, three Sun Belt refugees have made their | | | | yards per game on the ground last year. Also, their |
| way into the mix - New Mexico State, Idaho and | | | | schedule is brutal with USC, Michigan State and |
| Utah State. None of those teams figure to factor | | | | Wisconsin on the on-conference slate.Best Bet: Nov. |
| much in the mix, but each are trying to establish a | | | | 25, 2005 vs. Wisconsin. The Warriors are 13-6 ATS |
| base for programs that aspire to reach the level of | | | | under Jones, and should be dogs in this |
| national respect that it looks like Boise and Fresno | | | | post-Thanksgiving game. I think the timing, along with |
| have achieved.The following is Doc's detailed analysis | | | | Wisconsin's unfamiliarity with Hawaii's style, will lead to |
| of each Western Athletic Conference team | | | | a cover.Be Wary Of: Sept. 10, 2005 at Michigan State. |
| highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and strength | | | | The Spartans came to Hawaii last year and got |
| of schedule.Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1, 8-0)Fresno | | | | molested by the officials. It's not going to be pretty |
| State closed out 2004 with a flourish. They ended | | | | how they exact revenge in East Lansing.Idaho |
| took out their wrath after a loss to Boise State by | | | | Vandals (3-8, 3-5)This isn't going to be pretty. Idaho |
| blasting their last five conference foes by an average | | | | was 3-9 last season while playing in the Sun Belt, and |
| of 40 points (all big time covers). They then claimed | | | | now their moving up in class to the WAC. First-year |
| an upset win (outright) in a bowl game for the third | | | | coach Nick Holt did an admirable job coaxing what he |
| year in a row, coming from behind to top Virginia | | | | could out of an undermanned squad that only played |
| 37-34 in overtime in the MPC Computers Bowl. With | | | | two true home games. This year, he returns just 13 |
| increased national recognition for their | | | | starters and will be hard-pressed to contend with the |
| accomplishments, the goal for the Bulldogs now is to | | | | likes of Boise State and Fresno State.Strengths: Two |
| end Boise State's reign in the WAC. Fresno has lost | | | | freshman running backs, Jayson Bird and Rolly |
| four straight meetings.Strengths: 17 starters include | | | | Lumbala, combined for 1,433 yards. Bird averaged 5.9 |
| linebacker Dwayne Andrews and quarterback Paul | | | | yards per carry. Michael Harrington completed 66 |
| Pinegar. Pinegar completed 60 percent of his passes | | | | percent of his passes (up from 46 percent in '03) and |
| last fall and 11 different receivers had more than five | | | | found wideout Bobby Bernal-Wood 96 times. Those |
| catchers. Wendell Mathis (995) was five yards away | | | | 96 grabs were fourth in the country. Also, all-Sun Belt |
| from giving the Bulldogs two 1,000-yard rushers | | | | performer Cole Snyder joins Mike Anderson to lead |
| (Bryson Sumlin had 1,104). The defense brings back | | | | the linebacking corps.Weakness: Harrington didn't |
| eight starters on a crew that finished 13th nationally | | | | exactly get a ringing endorsement from Holt in spring |
| in both passing yards allowed and third down | | | | practice after the coach refused to name him the |
| efficiency.Weakness: Team MVP Logan Mankins is | | | | starter over juco transfer Steve Wichman. A QB |
| now starting for the New England Patriots, and | | | | controversy is not something that a program that will |
| though four starters return they are still pretty green | | | | struggle not to drown in its new league needs. Also, |
| up front (two sophomores and a freshman). Garrett | | | | the secondary was terrible last season (gave up 200 |
| McIntyre is the only returning defensive lineman for | | | | yards rushing and 230 in the air) and hasn't shown |
| the league's top defense in '04.Best Bet: Sept. 17, | | | | signs of improvement.Best Bet: Oct. 1, 2005 at UNLV. |
| 2005 at Oregon. Statement game. Big time. Fresno | | | | The Vandals are above water ATS as road dogs |
| State is 13-2 versus teams from the BCS leagues, | | | | (17-14 the last seven years) and are a respectable |
| and has eight outright wins in those contests. Also, | | | | 12-8 on grass. I don't know if they're good enough to |
| they're recently 8-1 vs. the Pac 10. Be careful though, | | | | steal a road win against the Rebels, but they should |
| the Bulldogs have gone only 12-12 on artificial turf the | | | | cover against a team of comparable skill.Be Wary Of: |
| last seven years.Be Wary Of: Nov. 12, 2005 vs. Boise | | | | Nov. 19, 2005 at Boise State. Four of Idaho's nine |
| State. This is it. This game will be for the conference | | | | losses in 2004 came by more than 30 points. One of |
| championship, and the Bulldogs get to play it at home. | | | | those was a 65-7 debacle versus their in state |
| I do think this is the year they get over the hump, | | | | "rival".Louisiana Tech Bulldogs(3-8, 2-6)Ryan Moats, |
| but the number on this game could be deceiving. If | | | | the 5-foot-8 dynamo that electrified the crowds of |
| they're getting points, it's a trap bet. If they're giving | | | | Joe Aillet Stadium has taken his road show to the |
| points, just make sure it's less than six.Boise State | | | | NFL, leaving a gaping hole in the Bulldogs offense. |
| Broncos (10-2, 7-1)Don't let the gimmicky offense | | | | Though he started only 22 games, last year's WAC |
| and blue field fool you - Boise State is one of the top | | | | Offensive Player of the Year finished his brief career |
| programs in all of college football. The Broncos were | | | | with almost 3,200 yards. And those numbers didn't |
| one quarter away from an undefeated season last | | | | come against cupcakes. The Bulldogs had one of the |
| year, suffering its first loss at the hands of Louisville | | | | toughest schedules in the nation in '04, squaring off |
| 44-40 in the Liberty Bowl. Amazingly, that loss makes | | | | against six nationally ranked teams. They shouldn't |
| Boise State 37-3 over its last 40 games. The other | | | | face more than half of that number this fall.Strengths: |
| defeat was a two-pointer to Oregon State in '03. | | | | Freshman Patrick Jackson could end up filling the void |
| The Broncos have won 26 consecutive conference | | | | left by Moats. Jackson ran for more than 3,000 yards |
| games and three straight WAC titles. Also, they've | | | | and 58 touchdowns as a senior in high school in '04. If |
| been to five bowl games in the last six years, going | | | | he follows behind all-WAC guard Aaron Lips he could |
| 4-1 (overall and against the spread) in that | | | | have a breakout year. The defense is spotty, but |
| period.Strengths: Eight starters on both sides of the | | | | they do return three senior linebackers, led by |
| ball will make their way back to Bronco Stadium this | | | | Ladarius Love.Weakness: La. Tech is on its fifth |
| fall. Quarterback Jared Zabransky, who passed for 16 | | | | defensive coordinator in the last five years. They |
| touchdowns and rushed for 13 more in 2004, and | | | | were college football's worst D in 2003. Giving up 32 |
| linebacker Korey Hall, the top returning tackler are | | | | points a game last year was an improvement, but |
| both back in blue. All four of the Broncos top rushers | | | | only four starters are back from that suffocating |
| (including Jon Helmandollar, who had 14 touchdowns in | | | | unit. The Bulldogs also don't have a quarterback, with |
| 46 carries) return, as do four stellar offensive | | | | three signal-callers still lost in the indomitable shadow |
| linemen. The defense is stout in the middle, and | | | | left by 2003 grad Luke McCown.Best Bet: Nov. 12, |
| safety Cam Hall and cornerback Gerald Alexander (5 | | | | 2005 at Idaho. Having to close the season against |
| INT's) bring some experience to the | | | | Fresno and Boise, this will probably mark the Bulldogs' |
| secondary.Weakness: Leading receiver T.J. Acree | | | | last shot at a win in '04. Also, they've won at least |
| graduated, and Boise will be relying on juco transfer | | | | one game on turf every season since 2001.Be Wary |
| Cole Clasen to pick up the slack. Defensively, | | | | Of: Sept. 10, 2005 at Florida. Cover your eyes and |
| two-way player Quinton Jones will be expected to | | | | hide the women and children. La. Tech is 0-6 the last |
| make the change from RB/WR to starting | | | | few years ATS as dogs of more than 21 points. The |
| cornerback. The nation's leading scorer in '04, kicker | | | | Urban Meyer Era should begin pretty swimmingly in |
| Tyler Jones, has moved on and punter Kyle Stringer | | | | the swamp against the Bulldogs.San Jose State |
| will likely take on double-duty. Also, the schedule is a | | | | Spartans (3-8, 2-6)The good news for the Spartans |
| bit tougher with trips to Georgia, Oregon State, | | | | is that 67-year-old Dick Tomey is rip roarin' and ready |
| Fresno State and Hawaii looming.Best Bet: Sept. 10, | | | | to go. Tomey is currently eighth on the active list of |
| 2005 at Oregon State. If Boise State loses to | | | | winningest coaches at the Division I-A level, with a |
| Georgia in its season opener, it will drop the line on | | | | 158-110-7 career record. The bad news is that this is |
| this game. Don't be fooled - the Broncos are the far | | | | barely a Div. I-A roster, and the average attendance |
| superior team. BSU is 2-0 as road dogs the last two | | | | of SJSU home games last season was about 6,500. |
| years.Be Wary Of: Oct. 22, 2005 at Utah State. I | | | | Oh yeah, and they are the second worst program at |
| know this sounds crazy, and I don't think there's a | | | | graduating players "in a timely manner," as noted by |
| chance in hell that the Aggies pull the upset, but | | | | the NCAA. Tomey, you sure you don't want to |
| Boise State is only 14-11 the last two years ATS, and | | | | retire?Strengths: Seven starters return from last |
| is 0-3 as favorites of more than four touchdowns. It | | | | year's defense. New offensive coordinator Ken |
| takes a certain type of animal to beat a team by 40. | | | | Margerum thinks this receiving core is better than the |
| The Broncos might not be it.New Mexico State | | | | one he left at Stanford. Lamar Ferguson, this year's |
| Aggies (7-5, 5-3)Hal Mumme is bringing his traveling | | | | starter at running back is only 5-feet, 5-inches. I'm |
| sideshow to Aggie Memorial Stadium. Mumme made a | | | | sure the novelty on that will wear off quick, but at |
| national name for himself by actually turning Kentucky | | | | least it's something. How about this: over its last 16 |
| into a relatively competitive football program in the | | | | games, the Spartans are 9-7 against the |
| SEC. After four years at the school, Mumme was run | | | | spread.Weakness: Everything else. Quarterback Adam |
| out amidst rumors of impropriety. He resurfaced at | | | | Tafralis is an accomplished discus thrower, but not |
| Southeast Louisiana, where he had another | | | | much of a passer. Tafralis completed just 44 percent |
| successful two-year run. Now it's on to New Mexico, | | | | of this throws last season in limited action. He's |
| where he could put the Aggies in the position of | | | | excited about the new offense though, and has been |
| spoiler for Boise or Fresno, and should at least find his | | | | quoted as saying, "There's a lot more of a plan, |
| way to the school's first ever bowl game.Strengths: | | | | instead of just flipping a coin."Best Bet: Oct. 22, 2005 |
| The Aggies' offense has a real nice core for Mumme | | | | vs. Hawaii. Tomey will have his charges fired up in this |
| to work his magic with. He has the team's five | | | | matchup against one of his old teams. Also, the |
| leading receivers back, three offensive linemen, and | | | | Spartans have covered the spread against the |
| the top three rushers. The most intriguing prospect is | | | | Warriors in each of the past two seasons.Be Wary |
| converted quarterback Paul Dombroski, who is now a | | | | Of: Oct. 8, 2005 at Utah State. This clash of WAC |
| full time slot receiver. Linebacker Jimmy Cottrell has | | | | cellar dwellers should be riveting. Amazingly enough, |
| led the team in tackles for three straight seasons, | | | | San Jose State is 8-1 ATS over the last seven years |
| and is back to anchor the defense.Weakness: Like | | | | as a road favorite. If they're giving points here, take |
| several other teams in this division, they don't have a | | | | the Spartans all the way to the bank!Utah State |
| quarterback. Junior Joey Vincent and juco transfer | | | | Aggies (3-9, 2-6)The highlight of the Aggies' season in |
| Royal Gill with fight for reps this fall. Also, while they | | | | 2004 was their 34-point second half for a comeback |
| may be the most well equipped team to make the | | | | win over New Mexico State in the final game of the |
| jump from the Sun Belt to the WAC, they're still | | | | year. The win was a fond farewell for coach Mick |
| tossing themselves into a conference with preexisting | | | | Dennehy, who had been fired 12 days earlier. Utah |
| hierarchy and will be facing teams with a greater skill | | | | State is welcoming new coach Brent Guy, a former |
| level than they're used to.Best Bet: Sept. 17, 2005 at | | | | Aggies assistant under Charlie Weatherbie and has |
| New Mexico. The Lobos whooped up on the Aggies | | | | been at Arizona State for the past four years. To |
| 38-3 last year, and will be playing at home. This | | | | say that the Aggies will have a tough adjustment |
| should lead to a double-digit spread with the Aggies | | | | moving to the WAC would be an understatement, |
| getting points. The teams are pretty even in | | | | given that they tied for last in the Sun Belt last |
| strength, and have the whole in-state rivalry thing | | | | fall.Strengths: For the second straight year, the |
| going on. I think NMSU could win outright, but I'll | | | | strength of the team should be the secondary. The |
| settle for a cover.Be Wary Of: Sept. 24, 2005 vs. | | | | defensive line also has some talent, but needs to |
| California. Yes, they'll be all amped up for this one, but | | | | improve against the run (90th nationally in 2004). |
| the Aggies are 0-4 after playing New Mexico, | | | | Wide receiver Kevin Robinson led the squad with 602 |
| including a terrible home loss to Idaho in 2003 and a | | | | yards and managed 22.5 yards per punt return, |
| 45-0 drubbing at the hands of UTEP in 2004.Nevada | | | | second in the nation to Ohio State's Ted Ginn |
| Wolfpack (5-6, 4-4)Through three separate tours | | | | Jr.Weakness: If Utah State is to match last year's win |
| with the Wolfpack, coach Chris Ault has had only | | | | total (3), they need to improve their run defense. |
| two losing seasons in 20 years. One of them was | | | | They were 115th in the country last season against |
| last year's 5-7 disappointment. This season Nevada is | | | | the run, yielding 192 yards a game. It could be tough |
| sort of a dark horse team in the WAC. Now, | | | | to shore up that area on defense given that the |
| obviously they aren't going to overthrow Boise or | | | | Aggies lost their top four linebackers from last |
| Fresno, but with a soft non-conference schedule | | | | season.Best Bet: Nov. 5, 2005 vs. Louisiana Tech. Utah |
| they could pull out 7 wins and make their first bowl | | | | State is forced to play Fresno State, Boise State and |
| appearance since 1996.Strengths: Quarterback Jeff | | | | at Alabama in consecutive weeks. The Bulldogs will be |
| Rowe and Nichiren Flowers hooked up 91 times last | | | | a welcome sight for the Aggies.Be Wary Of: Oct. 1, |
| fall, the fifth-highest total in the country. Both are | | | | 2005 at Idaho. Utah State has split against the |
| back, along with Caleb Spencer (67 catches for 761 | | | | Vandals the past two years, but hasn't covered |
| yards), to provide the offensive punch for Nevada. | | | | against Idaho the last four years. The two are |
| The defense returns eight starters (though they | | | | familiar foes from the Sun Belt, so a close game |
| were terrible as a group last year). Jeremy Engstrom | | | | should ensue.Overall Expectations:Top-heavy is the |
| had a solid freshmen year, and will team up with a | | | | best way to describe he WAC this season. I think |
| juco transfer and another true freshmen to lead the | | | | that Boise State has a more difficult schedule than |
| linebackers.Weakness: The defense has yielded less | | | | Fresno State, and that will give the Bulldogs a slight |
| than 31 points per game only once in the last six | | | | edge. I think the two clubs are very close in talent, |
| years. They do return the eight starters, but they let | | | | and while Boise State may be better, I have a feeling |
| up 210 rushing yards per game last season and 14 | | | | that Fresno's home-field advantage will win out when |
| yards per pass. Leading rusher Chance Kretschmer | | | | the two meet in what should be their only |
| has also moved on after three solid years, leaving a | | | | competitive conference game.The teams that joined |
| void in the Nevada running game.Best Bet: Oct. 1, | | | | the conference this season have certainly |
| 2005 vs. San Jose State. Nevada has cleaned San | | | | watered-down the league. I'm not sure where this |
| Jose State's clock the last two years, winning by | | | | league is headed in the long term, but I know that |
| double figures each time and leading to two covers. | | | | this should be a season of unprecedented coverage |
| With a little momentum after their pre-conference | | | | for the WAC. Watch out for New Mexico State this |
| schedule, another double-digit win should be in the | | | | season. Finally, I think that this league is nothing more |
| cards.Be Wary Of: Nov. 12, at New Mexico State. | | | | than two powerhouses that will get to look a little |
| This should be a hotly contested game against the | | | | better than they really are by demolishing the WAC |
| third and fourth best teams in the conference. The | | | | bottom-feeders.Doc's Sports Recent Articles:2005 Big |
| fact that Nevada is going to be a road dog (0-5 ATS | | | | Ten PreviewUS Open OddsNFL HoldoutsDoc's Sports |
| in 2004) doesn't bode well for them.Hawaii Warriors | | | | Handicapping Service |
| (4-7, 3-5)Last year the Timmy Chang Era ended in | | | | 1-866-238-6696Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been |
| the Aloha State with a flourish. The Warriors won | | | | recognized as one of the leaders and most trusted |
| their final three regular season games to barely | | | | names in sports handicapping information. |
| secure a bowl berth. They made the most of it by | | | | |