| Even if you are not a political junkie like I am, you will | | | | reasonably accurate result, provided it is random |
| still probably find yourself glued to your TV set on | | | | enough and varied enough among all demographic |
| election night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to find out | | | | groups, geographic areas, etc. To use an analogy |
| whether President George W. Bush will be elected or | | | | that I've often heard, you don't need to drink the |
| if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts will | | | | whole glass of tea to find out whether or not it's |
| become our 44th President. Will everything you see | | | | sweet. Just a taste will due, assuming the glass has |
| and hear that night be interesting? Will it even make | | | | been stirred properly. The other criticism is: "They |
| sense to you? Well, if all you are interested in is | | | | ask intentionally misleading and confusing questions." |
| finding out who wins, you may be in for a long and | | | | This is quite true of many political polls. However, the |
| boring night. Volumes of information will be presented | | | | main question asked during exit poling is: "For whom |
| that night before a final winner is declared. However, | | | | did you vote?". I wonder which part of that question |
| if you know a few things to look for, all of that stuff | | | | people wouldn't understand.As states are called, their |
| might make a lot more sense and actually be | | | | electoral votes are placed into one candidate's |
| interesting as well.For one thing, you need to be | | | | column. Also, look for each news organization to |
| aware that there's only going to be a passive | | | | utilize a map of the United States, which starts out |
| emphasis on the national popular vote, i.e., the total | | | | with each state depicted as white. As a state is |
| amount of votes cast nationally for each candidate. | | | | called for Bush, its color is changed to red; as a state |
| That's because it doesn't determine who wins - the | | | | is called for Kerry, its color is changed to blue; hence, |
| electoral votes do. In every state except Maine, | | | | the red states and blue states. Look for Kentucky to |
| Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado (more on that later), | | | | be the first state called. That state closes its polls at |
| the winner of that state receives all of its electoral | | | | 6:00 Eastern Time and will almost certainly fall into |
| votes. Maine awards them by congressional district, | | | | Bush's column. Once a candidate reaches 270 or more |
| with the other two going to that state's overall | | | | electoral votes, he will be declared the winner of the |
| winner. Nebraska awards its electoral votes | | | | election, regardless of the total popular votes or how |
| proportionally, based on the percentage of the | | | | many red or blue states he has earned.If Bush wins |
| popular vote each candidate receives in that | | | | all the states he won in 2000 and no more, he will |
| state.The number of electoral votes each state has | | | | win by a larger margin (277-261) in the electoral |
| is calculated by adding the number of its | | | | college than he won by last time (271-267). Actually, |
| congressional districts to the number of its senators. | | | | he could lose one of his smaller states like New |
| The number of congressional districts each state has | | | | Hampshire, without picking up one that Gore won, |
| is based on its population. The more populous states | | | | and still win the election. This is because, based on |
| like California and Texas have a lot more | | | | the 2000 census, the population has shifted a bit and |
| congressional districts than more sparsely populated | | | | six congressional seats (and therefore the same |
| states like Wyoming or Vermont. However, every | | | | amount of electoral votes) have shifted from "Gore" |
| state has at least one congressional district, no | | | | states to "Bush" states.The key states to watch |
| matter how small its population. Every state has | | | | throughout the evening will be the so-called |
| exactly two senators. Therefore, every state has at | | | | "battleground" states. The candidate who wins the |
| least three electoral votes. In addition to all the | | | | majority of those states will likely win the election. By |
| states, the District of Columbia is allotted three | | | | most estimates, these states include New Hampshire, |
| electoral votes, even though it has no voting | | | | Pennsylvania, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, |
| members in Congress.Many people believe the | | | | Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of the |
| electoral college, the system of casting electoral | | | | other states are considered to already be in the |
| votes to determine the outcome of the presidential | | | | column of one candidate or the other. As a general |
| election, is inherently unfair and should be abolished in | | | | rule, Bush is expected to be strong in the south, |
| favor of a system in which the winner is determined | | | | southwest, and mountain and prairie west. Kerry |
| purely by the national popular vote. Of course, it | | | | looks to be strong in the northeast, upper Midwest, |
| would take a Constitutional amendment for that to | | | | and along the Pacific coast. I don't see any state |
| happen. Therefore, the electoral college is here to | | | | further west than New Mexico or Colorado being a |
| stay. Even if such amendment could get the required | | | | major decisive factor. It is already assumed that |
| two-thirds margin in the House and Senate, it would | | | | California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii will all go |
| never be able to get the required three-quarters of | | | | for Kerry, while Alaska will go for Bush.Colorado could |
| the state legislatures. There are too many small | | | | prove to be the most controversial this time, but |
| states that would be staunchly opposed to it, as | | | | only if everything falls right. There is an initiative on |
| they feel that the electoral college allows them to be | | | | the Colorado ballot to award its electoral votes |
| "players" in the presidential election campaign that | | | | proportionally, instead of awarding all nine of them to |
| they would not be in a purely popular vote system. | | | | the winner, as it does now. If passed, this would go |
| These small states fear that they would be | | | | into effect immediately with this election. Since the |
| completely ignored by presidential candidates, without | | | | race in Colorado is expected to be close, the results |
| the electoral college. I fear that they are right.Many | | | | of this measure would effectively take four electoral |
| states will be "called", i.e., a projected winner of that | | | | votes away from the winner of the state and give |
| state will be announced, by news organizations as | | | | them to the loser. Therefore, if the measure passes |
| soon as the polls close in those states. This can be | | | | and the candidate who wins Colorado loses the |
| done fairly accurately with the use of exit polls, a | | | | election by less than nine electoral votes, the |
| process by which voters are asked about their | | | | measure will have cost that candidate the election. |
| decision as they are exiting their polling places. If the | | | | Obviously, a major legal battle would ensue if that |
| exit polling sample alone from a given state shows a | | | | happened.One final item to watch for on election |
| clear victory for one candidate, they will call that | | | | night is the battle for control of the House and the |
| state as soon as its polls close. If the exit polls show | | | | Senate. The Republicans currently hold a slim margin |
| that a given state is too close to call, they will wait | | | | in both houses. Several key wins, or "pick-ups," by |
| until enough of the actual vote count comes in | | | | the Democrats could turn things around in their favor |
| before calling that state. Exit polls are sometimes | | | | in one house or possibly both. Conversely, some |
| wrong, though. The most infamous example was | | | | pick-ups by the Republicans could increase their |
| Florida in 2000, when it was called for Gore based on | | | | margin in one or both house. Key races that could go |
| exit polling data and some of the actual results. After | | | | either way will be monitored closely throughout the |
| more of the actual results started coming in, | | | | evening.Terry Mitchell is a software engineer from |
| however, the news organizations soon started to | | | | Hopewell, VA. He operates a website, on which he |
| realize things might not go in Florida the way they | | | | posts commentaries on various subjects such as |
| had projected, so they soon retracted their call and | | | | politics, technology, religion, health and well-being, |
| the state ultimately went to Bush.By the way, people | | | | personal finance, and sports. His commentaries offer |
| who say they never believe exit polls (or political polls | | | | a unique point of view that is not often found in the |
| in general) will offer two main criticisms of them. The | | | | mainstream media. He rarely misses an opportunity to |
| first is: "They've never asked me." In actuality, very | | | | assail political correctness and take pot shots at the |
| few voters are ever contacted by pollsters. Only a | | | | conventional foolishness. Mr. Mitchell is also a trivia |
| very small sample of voters is needed to get a | | | | buff. |